Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[CogDiss 1188X]

Xena, I think the PR was a bit of a train wreck from a public relations perspective — way too technical early on, buried the lede. I suspect that most analysts who don’t follow the stock didn’t grasp the significance of the results. On the surface, it’s a small sample size in a phase 2 study in a disease with scores of failed drugs. The company is a microcap at that so the assumption is “Nothing to see here!”


The CEO’s first comment is “The results show the trial should proceed!” I think the guy at TDA cut and pasted and left to grab his morning bagel.

BTW, I’m not suggesting Missling should have hyped the results. The PR could have certainly been clearer however.

The price action was kind of weird today — just a steady march up, roughly 30%; no pop in price. It even went slightly negative in the first half hour! This shows that the market hasn’t really grasped the results, and it took time for those who ultimately did to get to that point and buy.

BTW, I tripled my position today — to the full size I’m willing to lose on any investment (such as Nike or PEP). Given the speculative nature of AVXL, my new position is pretty oversized from my typical risk perspective.