Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[SonamKapoor]

Coca Cola, PepsiCo, Tab...RC and moonpies-

I don't use Coca Cola as an analogy for IPE because they have COMPLETELY different supply and demand structures. It is understandable how diffuse the analogy became because AMRN used Coke vs Pom to argue their ITC case. And the analogy also works to an extent in that patients should have it within reach like a Coke and AMRN is attempting a hybrid position in terms of DTC pharma marketing.

But, Coke is regulated like a CPG not a drug. In consumer research on beverages, there is NO product testing level at which Americans say "no, that's too sweet." Even if you discount that research somewhat because consumer panels want to please the researchers (CPG world is broken after all - look at Nielsen split this month as Connect isn't as profitable as it once was), it still shows that soda makers know they can keep adding more sugar, concentrating it further with a new flavor and slapping a new label on it to chase "premiumization", and we like it more. It's a very short time table from R&D to new label in CPG land compared to pharma.

In the US according to the USDA we consume per capita annually

40 lbs of sugar
22 lbs of hfcs
10 lbs of other sweeteners (excluding alcohol sugars).

Practically all regions on the planet grow sugar cane, sugar beets and/or corn.

Global supply in a given year of those 3 sweetener sources alone is about:

290,000,000 million mt
190,000,000 annual production (and the rest is carryover stock or in some phase of production)

The price of sugar trades between $0.14-$.0.25/lb because of all the subsidies, IMF loans, and its cash crop status for developing countries. It is easy to sell more sweetener - people crave it and the source is everywhere and cheap.

So, like soy and seed oils (close to 600,000,000 million mt annual production) the world consumes a lot of these easily mass produced sweet & addictive energy sources.

Contrast that with fishoil supply- 1,000,000 mt which in recent el nino years has been down as low as 835,000 mt. From that, O-3 DHC demand fluctuates with current (revised) numbers "showing" 185,000...210,000 mt (from 165,000-185,000 mt in the last decade).

There's a bit of a structural difference between these analogies.

See below for more trade data: