Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[KCSVEN]

I think Raf is right on with his guess, if CVR we could get $40 plus milestones and if not $50 straight up BO.

I think GIA we see 30's next year, assuming label is reasonable and generics don't win the lawsuit, Epanova is less successful than RI and at that point it all comes down to revenue and supply as to where it goes 2021 and beyond.

I'd take the milestone payments and less up front, it's like GIA with a BO with admittedly less upside but zero risk. But, like anyone $50 a share would be a good chunk of change so not complaining either way in a BO. Amarin wont sell for less than that IMO.

IF Amarin let's generics get to court without paying them off I would think BO is not likely while that played out and I assume after January trial it would take a few months to get results so Q1 would be out for BO. So if Amarin has BO as the preferred path by management they will settle with the generics before trial, I know it takes two to settle so will be curious how aggressive Amarin is with paying them off. No advantage to them going to trial if a BO, only advantage with winning a trial is GIA scenario.

In GIA they partner Europe, get cash up front and royalties, with right partner they could generate good cash flow, if they do that then BO company most likely be that partner down the line or they are GIA. They should prep EU launch mid next year so everything points to GIA vs BO decision in 1H 2020. They would be 100% de-risked and ready to massively launch USA and determine EU strategy.