I think people confuse the potential value if the drug vs what Amarin can get out of it.
100 per share with future 425 million shares is 42.5 billion market cap.
Please explain the likely scenario in 1-2 years where WS prices Amarin with that market cap?
At 5 billion peak sales you might see 40 billion in revenue total by 2029 which is about 30 billion gross profit and about 23 billion after taxes, so double that to 10 billion peak sales, which nobody is going to model to in a BO or on the street but just say they did, you get 46 billion cash flow, nobody is paying or pricing Amarin at 40 billion to get 23 billion in cash flow and nobody is pricing or paying that for 46 in cash flow. so basically your scenario seems to be that within 2 years people will be pricing in peak revenue at 15-20 billion range, even though in 2 years they will be lucky to have supply and revenue above 3 billion, which means they have 7 years left coming off 3 billion in revenues and maybe 4 billion over 2 years. Which means they need to average 8 billion over last 7 years, and the market has to believe that will happen?
Yes, there should be residual OTC revenue past 2929 and is possible Amarin will lock up supply and generics will have a hard time supplying enough for years and in 2025 or later they may see a few years of possible larger revenues if some other indication shows success in trials but also short window from any other indication to generics. Then you want market or BO to price all this possible incredible future success before it comes to fruition?
If you throw out anticipated stock prices you should do the models involved to get those numbers. Then at least there is something to analyze.
Could Amarin get to 100 per share someday? Yes it could but odds are low because so much has to go right for that to happen. But a BO means it can never happen because nobody is paying that in the next 2 years.
