My pitch for AMRN on Dew's board .
Happy Turkey day everyone
-----------------------------
AMRN ...Lin I have traded AMRN for over 9 yrs ( since 2010 ) .
I did very well thru the Marine and Anchor trials , sold out before they decided to go it alone late 2012 , re entered with a small position pre 2013 Adcom ...covered that loss by buying under $1 a couple of years later .
I completely underestimated the success of the Reduce It Trial ...having gone into that 2018 read out in a option strangle that didn't turn positive till stock traded between $6-$8 a share .
AMRN is my largest biotech position for the following reasons
1) It is largely de risked ...except for a pending patent challenge and the details of the final expanded label ...FDA decision by Dec 28th
2) I am on the drug ...Vascepa ...and of all the CV risk reduction drugs I've been on since 1987 ...it is by far the most "patient friendly " and easiest to adhere to .
Note I said adhere to . 50% of those prescribed statins drop them after 1 yr ...less likely to be the case with AMRN's Vascepa once co pay's are lowered.
3) ICER report on Vascepa's cost effectiveness .
Its really important to understand this . The cost to the health provider is about $1,600 a yr for Vascepa
The cost to the health care provider for the CAD patients covered in Amarin Reduce It trial is around $5,000 a yr in CV event costs
Health providers will SAVE $ getting all their R-IT profile patients on Vascepa ASAP
4) I expect the new FDA label to be very wide and basically include almost anyone on Statins . There is a risk to under prescribing such a safe drug . No one should have to wait ( and survive ) a CV event before getting Vascepa
5) So the market . I already have friends with family history of CV events who refuse to take statins , asking their MD's for Vascepa scripts . They see the drug as " natural " ...the best part of Salmon or Anchovies concentrated in capsule form.
Once insurers get on board and lower co pays ...which I think they will do fairly quickly once the FDA has decided on the actual label ...I expect scripts numbers to grow dramatically .
My own personal example as a high risk CAD patient .
90 days ago my Kaiser cardiologist refused to write me a script but agreed to do a deep dive into the Reduce It data. 60 days ago he wrote me a 30 day script for co pay of $84 . 30 days ago he rewrote me a 90 day script for a co pay of $24 a mth ....THATS how fast this is changing .
They want me on Vascepa ...why ...because it will save them $ ( ie keep me out of the ER )
This is not going to be a CCXI story or even an MDCO story as patents start to expire in 2029 ...BUT assuming the current patent challenge is dispensed with and the FDA grants a wide label ...expect a rapid up take of this drug in 2020 onwards
JMO
Kiwi
