Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[biotechtrader2020]

One minor nitpick - the short position at the end of october was not $55m - it is 55 million shares
End of october -> 55m short shares.(approx 1.1 billion dollars at $20 a share)

Nov 1 - 15th -> 32m new shorts + 39m short covering = 48million shares short
($960 million short)
Nov 16th to date:
-> 17.84 million new shorts from nov16th till - current date + 48 million shares short from end of nov 15th.

We won't know how many of these shorts covered until the short data for end of nov is out in the second week of december.

So the oppenheimer hit piece could have served two purposes:
1. orderly exit for a subset of the 48 million shares
2. A new shorting opportunity for the 17.84 million shorts (from nov 16th to date). Out of this 17.84 million 8 million of these were placed on 18th and 19th with the short price in the range of $24 to 22. So these positions are in the money and some of them could have been covered yesterday and today.

Amarin's management team has shown solid execution and they have grown revenues to over $430 million run rate with the current label. With expanded label, they will only do better. $7 price target is ridiculous and it is highly likely that this guy is somehow incentivized by the bears.

The short thesis on this was proved wrong by the Adcom vote. Hopefully, they are wrong two more times - once when we get the expanded label and for the second time when a big pharma gives an offer than AMRN can't refuse.