Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH)

[CoolG73]

Luna, when I mentioned that 2 patients relapsed in AURION, I meant it that we had 7 patients with a CR at 24 weeks and we lost 2 at 48 weeks for a total of 5 patients, I didn't mean that their LN worsened. Actually if you read the presentation that Dr. Huizinga presented in Australia in 2017, he gave the reason for the drop. it was because of AE ( 1 patient had a community pneumonia, 1 patient had a severe fever with unknown cause). and a 3rd one dropped because his SLE worsened. so AE caused 2 patients out of 7 with CR at 24 weeks to drop ( that is a lot). in AURA, we were lucky that all patients with CR at 24 remained in the study at 48 weeks but this is not guaranteed ( and the AURION is the perfect example).

This goes back to what I was saying that AURA was our best result: the Asian Indian population that gave us 59% CR is no longer there, the White population % that gave us 61% CR will be lower in AURORA. Based on some scenarios I have prepared, I am seeing a VCS CR % between 40 and 42, assuming we can take down the death rate from 11% to 2% and depending how the Hispanic population reacts to VCS.
In my opinion, this is more than enough to beat placebo with a meaningful statistical Delta but I am not seeing us hitting 49% like AURA. I am sorry some don't like what I am writing here but that's my 2 cents.