Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[biotechtrader2020]

I think we are getting a bit carried away with the comments against MDCO.

Assuming $3 billion as peak sales, then the offer of $9 billion is fair when considering that outcomes study won't be complete until 2024.
NVS might be able to extract a peak sales of $4-5 billion which makes this acquisition look cheap.

Vascepa is more attractive - less regulatory hurdles, solid sales ramp, positive and completed outcomes study, positive adcom recommendation and a wide label, generic settlement). But Vascepa is not cheap and BP needs to pay up.

Regarding Alzheimers, ADHD, NASH - those conditions are not in phase 3 yet so you have to discount the contribution of these condition to peak sales.

However, with Vascepa, Big pharma can improve peak sales with price increases to milk revenues before generics come in. So an offer closer to $30 billion is likely in the event of multiple interested buyers.