I think in a year we'll know which way it really goes. I believe Buyout by end of next year barring certain events. I just think it makes incredible sense for all involved to have a BO and nothing JT has said leads me to believe otherwise. From need to "de-risk" to the options granted in a takeover(not just to management) I'm pretty sure the plan today is they expect to sell within a year, of course plans change.
The biggest issue on a BO is willingness to meet Amarin's price, I can run a financial model up to $20 Billion from BP's side, if Amarin wants, for example, $30 Billion then not happening now and I think that is pretty much where BO talks are today and why we are closer to a year away from BO than months. I think that changes in a year when stock price is up, sales have ramped, science keeps confirming EPA works etc. If they keep a high price then GIA will be the only option.
I disagree with some of the private equity comments, they sell part of equity in many cases because they are all about leverage, they also usually want management to buy in as equity partners so they have skin in the game. They usually have to spread there money around to various investments, so they choose how much they want to invest and then allocate shares to others. Then they have more money for the next investment and so on.
However, with that said, I'm not opposed to GIA and realize the benefit to that could be a larger than a BO though with more risk.
I think for Amarin shareholders we will get well rewarded either way so I don't personally have a strong feeling as to what I want, I'm just analyzing it from my point of view and feel this is the way it will go. Might be wrong, time will tell.
