Boeing Stock Bulls Are Starting to Bail Because Money and Trust Are 'at Stake' -- Barrons.com Dow Jones News11:33 AM Eastern Daylight Time Oct 21, 2019 By Al Root Throughout the many troubles of the 737 MAX, most Wall Street analysts have kept faith in Boeing stock -- or at the very least, have taken a wait-and-see approach. That is starting to change as scrutiny of the company ramps up.
After a stream of MAX-related news over the weekend, multiple brokerages got off the fence and downgraded Boeing shares on Monday.
On Friday, emails and instant messages from 2016 surfaced that appear to indicate Boeing was aware its new flight control software -- implicated in two deadly crashes -- had issues. Boeing stock (ticker: BA) fell more than $25, or almost 7%, that day.
On Sunday, Boeing responded to the emergence of the emails provided by the House Subcommittee on Aviation, and provided more information on what happened between 2016 -- when the troubling emails were exchanged -- and 2017, when the first MAX jets were delivered.
"It is unfortunate that this document, which was provided early this year to government investigators, could not be released in a manner that would have allowed for meaningful explanation," reads the company's news release. The company didn't immediately respond to a request for comment on Monday.
Even though Boeing handed over those documents as early as February -- before the second crash of the MAX involving an Ethiopian Airlines flight -- some analysts no longer felt comfortable recommending the stock.
There is "too much new information to not re-look at cause [and] regulatory response [and MAX] timeline," wrote UBS analyst Myles Walton in a Monday research report. "We now have to append [our] assessment further based on source material provided to Congress and the FAA on Friday that reinforces the perception of and heightens the potential of incomplete disclosure, which inherently puts more money [and] trust and time at stake."
The new disclosure could mean the MAX doesn't return to service around the end of 2019 as Boeing has said it would. Walton still believes the plane will fly again, but says his confidence has been eroded. He downgraded shares to Hold from the equivalent of Buy. and cut his price target for shares all the way to $375 from $470.
Credit Suisse also cut its stock rating, according to multiple reports. Analyst Robert Spingarn downgraded Boeing to Hold from the equivalent of Buy, and cut his price target to $323 from $416. "We can no longer defend the shares in light of the latest discoveries, discoveries which significantly increase the risk profile for investors," wrote Spingarn in a Monday research report.
Baird analyst Peter Arment also moved to the sidelines on Monday because of what he called "textgate," downgrading the stock from the equivalent to Hold from Buy. "We see increased production risks the next 24 months, " wrote Arment. "While a recovery in free cash flow will happen in 2020 and 2021, it will be at reduced levels tied to increased 737 MAX production costs." His new $342 price target is based on an 8% free cash flow yield on his 2021 numbers. The average industrial company in the S&P 500 trades for about 4% to 5% free cash flow yield.
Gordon Haskett analyst Don Bilson thinks this weekend's news doesn't bode well for CEO Dennis Muilenburg. "House Transportation Committee Chairman Peter DeFazio told [The Wall Street Journal] that he thinks the board's oversight has so far been pretty lame," wrote Bilson in a Monday research note. Bilson doesn't cover Boeing shares, instead focusing on special situations, including management change and board realignment.
There is, however, a small bit of good news from Wall Street on Boeing stock. Morgan Stanley analyst Rajeev Lalwani says the email release is a "false alarm," noting that the company disclosed the documents earlier in 2019. He maintained his Buy rating on shares and has a $500 price target for the stock.
Boeing shares are dropping again, down more 3.8% in Monday trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is flat.
