A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[OldAIMGuy]

Thanks JD,
While the markets certainly seem "touchy" these days, they don't seem
overly "high risk." In fact, the metrics on several levels seem neutral
to modestly bullish.

I watch Value Line's "Median Dividend Yield" for all stocks paying
dividends (front page of Summary and Index section). Here's what it
looks like since the start of 1995:



The average value comes in at 2.06% while the median is 2.00%. Generally
if it's above 2.2% it tends to be bullish and if it's below 1.8% it
indicates bearishness. Right now it's 2.2% or just hanging on the
bullish edge of the neutral range.

Note the 2008-09 extreme bullish signal. Markets can climb with a slight
bearish signal but the worse it gets, the more likely there will be a
correction. I think of stock yield as competing with short term interest
rates. Right now ST rates are 1.84% so Value Line's median stock
dividend yield competes successfully in that area.

Best regards,
Tom