Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures - Monthly Summary Analysis »» Encountering Resistance
By: Marty Armstrong | October 12, 2019

THE ANALYSIS PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Oct. 11, 2019: NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 175440 and is trading up about 12% for the year from last year's closing of 155400. Presently, this market has been rising for this market has been rising for 4 months going into October suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 169400 while it is still trading above last month's close of 169980 implying near-term strength.


Up to now, the market remains neutral on the short-term levels of both momentum and trend on our indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bearish.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 7 years. The correction since that high has been a 27% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 341765 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 28% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating and moving higher since the low established during 2015. However, we did elect 1 Bearish Reversal from the high formed on during 2016 which provided the decline into during 2018. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Bullish Reversals from the last low established during 2018.



Our timing models warn that a turning point is due come this month in NY Silver COMEX Futures so we should remain focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during September. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a high at 197500 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 169800 closing yesterday at 175440. We now need to close beneath 169800 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now.

Critical support still underlies this market at 146000 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 10 months. The previous low of 138600 made during November 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 159350 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during September on the Monthly level at 197500 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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