Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Nearest Futures - Monthly Summary Analysis »» Temp Low
By: Marty Armstrong | October 12, 2019

OUR ANALYTICAL VIEWPOINT AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Oct. 11, 2019: NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 148870 and is trading up about 16% for the year from last year's closing of 128130. Factually, this market has been rising for this market has been rising for 4 months going into October suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 146500 while it is still trading above last month's close of 147290 implying near-term strength.


Up to now, the market remains quite bearish below all our system support indicators with resistance starting at 149210. The broader cyclical system indicators are also in a bearish position while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bearish.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 7 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 42% which has been a respectable recovery to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 7 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 104540. Since last year did exceed the previous high

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 157594 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 131000 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

Our timing models warn that a turning point is due come this month in NY Gold Nearest Futures so we should remain focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during September. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a high at 156620 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 147050 closing yesterday at 148870. We now need to close beneath 147050 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now.

Critical support still underlies this market at 126780 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 13 months. The previous low of 116270 made during August 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 140630 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during September on the Monthly level at 156620 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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