ETFs, Leveraged ETFs, Sector Funds

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The drop in NatGas continues...

This weeks Thursday inventory report expected to be as negative as last Thursday report due to an even larger inventory build up, suggesting to me the bottom is not in yet.

http://www.celsiusenergy.net/

I added the bold letters below for emphasis.

Based on this forecast and early-cycle pipeline data, I am projecting a +13 BCF/day daily natural gas storage injection, 1 BCF smaller than Tuesday and very close to the 5-year average injection. Once again, it has to be disappointing to see nearly perfect weather only capable of driving a near-average storage injection, courtesy of the bearish influences of record production and flat LNG exports. By tonight, projected Realtime natural gas inventories will reach 3380 BCF, while the storage deficit versus the 5-year average will hold steady at -19 BCF and the year-over-year surplus will hold at +462 BCF. Click HERE for more on today's projected daily natural gas storage injection and Realtime natural gas inventories.

6:00 AM EDT, Wednesday, October 2, 2019
Natural gas extended its losing streak to 11 straight days on Tuesday, which is the longest such streak on record, dating back to at least 1990, as shown in the Figure to the right.

November 2019 prices slid another 5 cents or 2% to settle at $2.28/MMBTU. The commodity continues to be hammered by a brutal 1-2 punch of record domestic production as takeaway capacity from the congested Permian Basin comes online and forecasts that point to a much warmer-than-normal October that will suppress heating demand. While natural gas is very oversold at current levels--and is undervalued by 12% according to my Fair Price Model based on current inventories--the bearish momentum is unrelenting and it is not surprising to see the sector overshoot to the downside. While long-term upside potential outweighs downside risk, it would not be surprising to see the commodity continue to pull back, perhaps dropping under $2.20/MMBTU should the warmest iterations of the 6-week temperature outlook verify.