Tuesday, October 01, 2019 5:10:16 PM
Finally, took the tree down with an ax.
I went to all cash on the big red candle on Sep 24 before it fell very far. I did that because I had already tried to trade the previous days but kept getting whacked. After that it was kinda interesting to see the market try to come back after each down day. What surprises me is that the trend down from the top has a lower slope than the rise going to the top near mid-September, and which also has gaps. Declines are supposed to happen faster than inclines. Once the buyers give up, that should happen. One could guess they started giving up today. In which case, don't be a sucker tomorrow while thinking you're buying the bottom.
On the upper chart I have an inclining blue line across the bottoms. That's a good target. But the decline can't pick up and go very far because the SR chart shows some really good support at its two green lines. The 50% retrace is at the top green line. Breaking below that might not be easy as buyers who like to buy 50% retraces might show up. Maybe this time that's the sucker play, but it won't last long as price hits the lower green line. That level, around 2,880 is also aligned with the collision of the lower inclining blue line and the falling center tine of the fork -- but that intersection happened today.
Final judgement? I don't have a clue. Maybe the slowness of the decline and the conflicting indications have to get resolved by a steeply accelerated decline (which may have started today).
I went to all cash on the big red candle on Sep 24 before it fell very far. I did that because I had already tried to trade the previous days but kept getting whacked. After that it was kinda interesting to see the market try to come back after each down day. What surprises me is that the trend down from the top has a lower slope than the rise going to the top near mid-September, and which also has gaps. Declines are supposed to happen faster than inclines. Once the buyers give up, that should happen. One could guess they started giving up today. In which case, don't be a sucker tomorrow while thinking you're buying the bottom.
On the upper chart I have an inclining blue line across the bottoms. That's a good target. But the decline can't pick up and go very far because the SR chart shows some really good support at its two green lines. The 50% retrace is at the top green line. Breaking below that might not be easy as buyers who like to buy 50% retraces might show up. Maybe this time that's the sucker play, but it won't last long as price hits the lower green line. That level, around 2,880 is also aligned with the collision of the lower inclining blue line and the falling center tine of the fork -- but that intersection happened today.
Final judgement? I don't have a clue. Maybe the slowness of the decline and the conflicting indications have to get resolved by a steeply accelerated decline (which may have started today).
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