Comparing ACAD to AMRN just for fun.
ACAD has been on a rollercoaster of a ride in SP similar to AMRN. Coming from as
low as .80 in 2009 to as high as $50 in 2015 and back down to 15 in 2018. No matter what was happening to the SP however, ever since 2010 institutional ownership has been increasing as can be shown here:
2009: 24M / 37M = 64% SP = .80
2010: 14M / 38M = 36% SP = 1.25 ****
2011: 30M / 50M = 60% SP = 1.70
2012: 31M / 53M = 58% SP = 1.51
2013: 59M / 79M = 74% SP = 6.03
2014: 90M / 93M = 96% SP = 23.30
2015: 97M / 100M = 97% SP = 30.43
2016: 110M / 111M = 99% SP = 20.69
2017: 119M / 122M = 97% SP = 34.59
2018: 121M / 144M = 84% SP = 29.91
2019: 137M / 144M = 91% SP = 26.85
2008: 4M / 22M = 18% SP = 2.74
2009: 32M / 42M = 76% SP = 1.15
2010: 66M / 100M = 66% SP = 8.88
2011: 95M / 130M = 73% SP = 8.16
2012: 78M / 144M = 54% SP = 8.52
2013: 47M / 167M = 28% SP = 1.83
2014: 50M / 174M = 28% SP = 1.02
2015: 47M / 181M = 25% SP = 2.08 ****
2016: 105M / 212M = 49% SP = 2.97
2017: 112M / 271M = 40% SP = 3.75
2018: 156M / 297M = 52% SP = 17.50
2019: 162M / 331M = 48% SP = 18.00
For Amarin institutional ownership has been increasing no matter the price swings since 2015.
Interestingly, in Q2 of 2013, before ADCOM notification, institutions reduced positions by 20% and hedgefunds specifically reduced positions by 36%.
Were these the recipients of insider info (FDA ADCOM leak)? Furthermore, in Q4 of 2013 after ANCHOR CRL, TOTAL institutional ownership dropped another 24% (yet 54 institutions still added or created positions), and hedgefunds specifically added 115%. What did they know?
In Q3 of 2016, well before REDUCE-IT results, Amarin went from 38M to 106M shares owned by institutions. Did they already know REDUCE-IT would be successful?
Now if there was a leak of this years tentative ADCOM, why didn’t institutions sell in Q1 or Q2 like they did the previous time? In fact, more shares were bought instead.
So the question is now that the ADCOM has been tentatively scheduled, have institutions bought more at these depressed levels? Or have they reduced positions? Wouldn’t that be a game-changer of information to know before the ADCOM vote? Imagine knowing institutions increased positions by 50% after the offering and adcom notice or vice versa.
*AMAZINGLY* the 13F filing date for Q3 is NOVEMBER 14th. That’s right. THE SAME DAY as the tentative adcom. You really can’t make this stuff up. AMRN is the king of “coincidences.”
Other interesting takeaways:
1. When ACAD hit over 90% institutional ownership it nearly quadrupled in price. This is what happens as more institutions want in and supply dries up. MM’s can only try to shake out the weak hands for so long, eventually all that is left are the investors who won’t sell until the price is right.
2. When ACAD started it’s continuous increase in institutional ownership in 2010, it was at 36%. When AMARIN started in 2015 it was at 25%.
3. For ACAD it took 4 years from 2010 to reach over 90% institutional ownership. For AMRN we are on year 4 currently. Nov 14 we will know a lot more.
4. ACAD went from 1.25 to 23.30 to reach 90% ownership. If AMRN follows this pattern it will be trading at $57.50 at 90% ownership.
5. People worried about BB trimming their position in AMRN a little shouldn’t, as they did the same with ACAD before it popped to $39 today.
If anybody else wants to make some more comparisons feel free to. Or any other comparisons to other stocks.
