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NY Crude Oil Futures - Turning Back UP »» Monthly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 7, 2019

THE ANALYSIS PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Sep. 6, 2019: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 5652 and is trading up about 24% for the year from last year's closing of 4541. This price action here in September is suggesting that this has been a bear market trend on the monthly level.


Presently, the market remains bullish on the momentum indicator yet neutral on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend is neutral and our cyclical strength is bullish.

The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 10 years. The correction since that high has been a 17% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 10102 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2016 and we have bounced some 116% which has been a very strong rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 8171 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 4051 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

A possible change in near-term trend is likely as we approach November in NY Crude Oil Futures. Consequently, be on guard with this target. The last cyclical event was a low established back during August. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable and look more closely at the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 5052 but closed on the positive side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 5799 to 5052. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 6660 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during April. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 7690 back during October 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 4810 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The previous high made during April on the Monthly level at 6660 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. The previous low of 4236 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 5485 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain above key support 4435 on a closing basis.

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