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NY Crude Oil Futures - TURNING BACK DOWN »» Monthly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 24, 2019

WE SEE THE ANALYTICAL SITUATION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Thu. Aug. 22, 2019: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 5535 and is trading up about 21% for the year from last year's closing of 4541. The historical perspective in the NY Crude Oil Futures included a rally from 2017 moving into a major high for 2018, the market has pulled back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the closed of 2018.


This market remains in an overall negative position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. At the moment, this market has been rising for 2 years going into 2019 reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend.

Immediately, the market remains neutral on the short-term levels of both momentum and trend on our indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are neutral.

This market on the monthly level has been consolidating and moving higher since the low established December. However, we did elect 2 Bearish Reversals from the high formed on April which provided the decline into June. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Bullish Reversals from the last low established June, yet we have seen at last a knee-jerk reaction upward thus far, this past month. We not need to close above this month's high to infer a retest of resistance.

A possible change in trend appears due come October in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during June. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, thus far, this market has already broken that previous low established at 5060. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bearish overall. Last month produced a high at 6094 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 5485 closing yesterday at 5535. We now need to close beneath 5485 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 6660 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during April. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 7690 back during October 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 4810 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Inspecting the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 2 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past Monthly session. The previous high made during April on the Monthly level at 6660 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. The previous low of 4236 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 5060 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain above key support 4435 on a closing basis.

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