Poster on Yahoo today. Pretty well thought out. Surely hope he is correct ————
“Approaching catalysts (some binary) & impact on stock price
So I’ll go out on a limb and provide input on catalysts and the corresponding pps movements. Some of this data is my own, while others I credit to inv bankers and BP staffers that I know personally. Just for fun I’m outlining what I expect (very conservative by nature) and you’ll see how I get my eoy pps.
Catalyst and PPS move
Citi fireside chat/tomorrow =. +/- .20. (Non event)
HC Wainwright/later in sept= same as citi (no real pps effect)
Pdufa appearing in FR, makes 11/14 adcom official=. -.50 drop
ICER final draft/late sept= + $1 to $1.50 jump
Evaporate whispers of data/late sept=$1 to $2 jump
Q3 revenue ATH and cash flow positive , +earnings =$1 to $1.50 jump
Adcom topic overview/mid Oct=-$1 to -$2 drop (sell off overblown)
Evaporate data release/early Nov=+$2 to +$3 jump (moa identified)
Adcom question better identified/nov 12=$3 to $5 swing (if it’s just label jump/if negative connotation then drop)
D Day11/14 win or lose=$12 to $15 jump on unanimous vote of approval OR $8 to $10 sell off on ambush
AHA 11/16 in Philadelphia momentum building w AHA SOC coming......Shock and awe effect 7 to 10 trading days w adcom news either another $5 jump or walk down into single digits on pps
Goldman and Chase initiating coverage/early Dec=+$2 to $3 jump
Fda rules for wide label, sNDA win 12/28=$1 to $3 jump
So in summary $17 to $19 pps by end of September. October tumultuous adcom topics will cause sell off, likely last chance for shorts then close oct sideways to September. JT pushing hard for evaporate the moa before adcom runs $20 to $22 into mid November. Adcom while filled w angst and uncertainty will be a shining moment $34 to $38 after and week or so into December trends pps to $40 floor. Chase and Goldman look like runners w their 2020 price targets and by eoy closing out at $43 to $44 pps
In 2020 this goes bananas. If fda has hidden agenda and out to ambush then it’ll be lucky to close $8 pps eoy. But, I can’t see an ambush. With Europe , ESC, EAS, ADA, ACC, AHA, NEJM there’s going to be many more reports, KOLs speaking up, surround sound so it’ll be a heck of a few months but eoy should close out beautifully with 2020 catalysts being incredible
Sitting on 12/31/19 @ $43.50 pps
Just wait for 2020 w billions in rev projected, hockey stick growth, 60 minutes spot and buyout war getting hot and heavy
It all boils down to 11/14, Amarin’s most important day ever either I’m wrong, fda ambush, close $8pps eoy OR I’m right wide and broad label, Wall St joins the Vascepa party and it’s off to the races”
AI
