Concapk:
Appreciate your knowledge and input!
With the new CVD indication I am confident we get in December the FDA will grant 3 additional years of exclusivity regardless of generic case outcome so we still have some breathing room. By the time that ends we will have revenue from Europe, Canada, China etc. Amarin will take a heavy hit if it loses 7 years of US revenue (the 7 highest years) but it will survive. I disagree with those that think Amarin can complete with generics by tying up suppliers or cutting margin, I think US revenue drops to negligible right away.
My question to you is: why is this all hinged to 1 patent when Amarin has over 50? What about R-it patents with specific patents for treating CVD? As a pharmacist I have never seen a Brand sold for 1 indication (V for CVD) and a generic (for Marine) for another. Impossible to monitor.
My thoughts:
I don’t believe the rising short interest is due to the expectation the FDA is going to screw Amarin at the Adcom. Hedging maybe but not record high short interest when the science is rock solid.
Weak patents explain why the STRENGTH trial was continued, why short interest has skyrocketed, the recent surge in puts and the reason there hasn’t been a buyout. The only things I can’t explain is why the Baker Brothers haven’t sold (they must have thoroughly researched the patents) and why GS and MS would be involved in a 25 million share deal at $18.
Amarin has always had the best lawyers money can buy and have had a very good legal track record so I’m confident they saw this coming but I have to admit my confidence in the stock has been significantly shaken by this turn of events.
I would be very interested in hearing HDG’s thoughts on the situation as he has stated a strong confidence in the patents in the past.
TIA
