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Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJIA) - Knee Jerk Low »» Monthly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 31, 2019

THE ANALYSIS PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Aug. 30, 2019: Dow Jones Industrials closed today at 2640328 and is trading up about 13% for the year from last year's closing of 2332746. This price action here in September is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.


Up to now, the market remains bullish on the short-term levels of our indicators while the long-term trend is neutral and our cyclical strength is bearish.

During this year, we have exceeded last year's high thereby making a new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a reasonable period of 10 years.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 2818645 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 1881635 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

A possible change in trend appears due come November in Dow Jones Industrials so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during July. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 2533960 but closed on the positive side and we need to penetrate that level on a monthly closing basis to suggest perhaps a further decline.

Critical support still underlies this market at 2606258 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 8 months. The previous low of 2171253 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level. The previous high made during July on the Monthly level at 2739868 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. However, we still remain below key resistance 2669596 on a closing basis.

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