Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Durk 47]

Stay Long & Stay Strong!

Here are my thoughts on the last 3 weeks.

Amarin has been in active discussions with Big Pharma about selling. Prices were coming in around $25+/- per share. Goldman,JP Morgan,Baker Brothers told Amarin if you can increase sales from:
$228 12/23/18
$400M 12/31/19
$1B 12/31/20

We can get closer to $40+/- per share and a $1B company with this kind of growth is more attractive to Big Pharma and they will pay a higher premium. To achieve this goal, Amarin needs to get FDA approval, expand the sales force and buy/build a manufacturing plant to meet the higher demand and bringing some of the mfgr in house will increase margins.Keep in mind, to become a $5B company, Amarin needs to demonstrate to potential buyers they can create a supply chain to meet the demand and this is not an easy product to make. Amarin Mgt basically agreed with the Plan and with the caveat if a better offer comes, we will consider it but we can GIA with the $400M cash raise which strengthens their negotiating position.

My view was the FDA was planning to waive the Adcom approval until the Novartis debacle happened two weeks ago where they were falsifying data. The FDA then took the position we want every applicant to get Adcom approval which provides independent substantiation of the claims,does not take that long and provides cover for the FDA. This is the reason for the late and sudden Adcom requirement, not the
backlog. On the plus side the Adcom has 5 endocrinologists and 3 cardiologists. To me, this indicates the language on heart issues is a settled matter. The open issue is the extent of the language on diabetes.

Bottom line , I agree with the other 6 analysts who cover this stock for a living- this is a buying opportunity!!!