Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[KCSVEN]

Immediately? It depends on if CRL gives an opp to still get approval, say, in a year, I just can't fathom what a CRL would say Amarin needed to do to get approval, they have done everything they needed to do BUT assuming some bizarro world where FDA denies and Canada and Europe still approve it has some value because it is now a debate with ADA, AHA and the public need vs FDA denial so they should still get a billion in sales at some point, and add foreign commissions/sales maybe they can clear $1 a share in profit. Would eliminate the strong need for generics to come in early with a smaller market so a positive there, would need to cut back sales force and expenses.
Then after 2029(if not sooner) they should be able to push themselves in the OTC market and maybe residually earn 500 million per year that way.

With all that I see upside of about $10 and likely down to $5 range in the short term if CRL.

If other studies come out, such as Alzheimers or EVAPORATE that give potential for expanded label you could see potential long term for larger share growth but you are relying on other studies to complete and FDA to approve....so...study needs to be blow away results (oh wait they have that already so what we talking about...)