Does not seem like capitulation yet. Fear drives corrections. This is a global economy, protectionism is bad for global economy thus bad for all economies.
I would guess China is going to let things ride until next election, if so Trump will keep ratcheting the tariffs. At some point I would guess Trump wants to get reelected so will come to a trade agreement, hail it as something great when in reality it will be slightly better than before and China will renege on most of it at a later date.
However, tariffs on both sides will back off and market will rally.
How long can Trump go considering China leaders have no fear of being replaced and can wait a year to hope Trump is out of office. If Trump goes too long and too far then a worldwide recession could temporarily happen.
These are the fears driving stocks down, mind you S and P is up STILL over 13% for the year, above the annual 10% average return so there is still some downside room.
So I'm looking to reach a 10% correction and then a bounce or float around there as they wait out the next move by Trump.
Though market timing is hard, you get lucky sometimes, I sold everything non Amarin and put to MM at the end of day on Fed rate reduction day(should have sold the day before but so goes market timing) with the idea of getting back in October 1 but this drop has me looking for an entry point already, have to see through the end of the week and see if we get any rebound or leveling off that sustains and will jump back in.
On the positive side a rate cutting environment is almost always good for stocks, P/E ratio's are only slightly high, forward P/E is slightly low. Fundamentals are good, unfortunately trade wars in a global economy are very bad.
