1) We don't know what price will be after approval, some stock prices hardly move after approval so while I agree it should be good for at least $2 a share there is no guarantee. You would still have street questioning when a raise was coming, questioning whether a small company can get sales up fast enough to justify the valuation, whether they would GIA, whether generics would get in earlier than 2029 etc...I don't believe approval is 100% baked in but approval is 99% expected, if label is broad stock will move up much more than just the approval. What if Trump signs executive order limiting Medicare prices they will pay for drugs, the sector sells off, Amarin might not get the pop because of that, so many possible unknowns to wait.
2) The market expected a raise after approval, a raise was coming, the filings all but said a raise was coming, launching a BB can cost 3-400 million dollars, it may cost 3-400 million to invest in expanded capacity with suppliers. It was going to take a monumental increase in scripts quickly after approval to avoid any raise of capital. A raise in capital was 90% plus going to happen,
3) JT NEVER said they would not need cash to market after approval, that's just not true.
4) In the grand scheme of things how much less dilution would there be after approval, I think people overestimate the price rise in the months after approval UNLESS there is a very broad label.
5) If it was $2 higher it would lose that $2 as soon as they raised after label expansion.
6) It's quite possible they are working on a deal to increase supply and having money available while negotiating this supply deal was necessary, in other words we don't have as much info as JT and management
7) It's all so meaningless, can they get to several billion in sales in 2021? If so stock will be $30 plus.
8) I personally agree they should have waited, since approval is all but certain, they should have waited to see what label exactly was since that will help determine how fast they can ramp sales and thus determine how much money they really needed
9) However, I all but knew they were going to raise money, they did it, they were going to do it, they like raising it vs. borrowing so that's what was going to happen.
10) Guess what? They got CASH for it, it wasn't free shares, they could go buy the shares back today and have cash left over, you have 32 million shares or so in around 18, selling pressure below that is low, yes algorithms will sell the market and Amarin with it but in a year, barring generics lawsuit win and assuming expended label the stock is above $20, this is all short term noise.
