Obviously no one anticipated a drop this far. I don't believe you would be able to find anyone who can look at the science and say the company is trading at a fair valuation. The data so far has been very good and I've yet to see any legitimate argument stating otherwise. How do you think they got NEA, Aisling, Perceptive, & Baker on board?
I'm not huge into technicals but looking at the chart we had a very sharp decline back in December from the $7.50 - $8 range down to the low $4 range. It took about a week for the SP to rebound where we then traded in a channel from $5-$7. When we recover from this drop I expect to hover around that same range until we get more substantial news.
I hate the thought of the SP being manipulated but with the science being solid I see absolutely no reason for this drop other than manipulation. And I hate to have to say that because I cant stand when everyone jumps straight to manipulation with every drop in share price. I only have one explanation that makes any sense to me. IIRC a large portion of the short positions were opened in the aforementioned $5-$7 range. Makes absolutely no sense why you would short there but, whatever. I think they got lucky with AACR releasing the data early and getting a jump on things before Marker could give the full rundown of the results. AACR really screwed us here. I know everyone expects to see a huge short squeeze but I have said all along these aren't retail shorts. They know what they are doing and they have a plan to get out. For those short positions to be profitable the SP needed to drop below $5. Well, here we are. While I don't expect to be taken below $4 given almost a third of outstanding shares were purchased there I ultimately don't know, nor does anyone else, where we will ultimately end up. I would assume we start to see the short interest decrease now that all the positions are in the green and hopefully, if that happens, we start to get our incremental rise back up.
Obviously everyone is frustrated and I can assure you that includes the company. As far as getting any PR or communication from them regarding the drop, I don't expect it. Unless they have new material information that makes sense to PR they won't issue a PR just because. Currently I don't believe there is anything to communicate. Q2 earnings are right around the corner and if they stick to their new schedule they will do a call. That is when I expect to get the next communication from the company.
I think I have made it pretty clear that I am here for the long haul and I know most of you are as well. This has been a crappy couple of weeks. We have had other crappy weeks. We will have more crappy weeks. But until those crappy weeks are do to the science failing then I'm not sweating anything.
Friends don't let friends place market orders
