Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[sts66]

On label patient population is nowhere close to 70M, more like 12M - I did those calcs last week - might have been 20M, don't recall the exact number I came up with. The ICER # of people with "CVD" is massively inflated because they include everyone who has BP of > 130/80, which is a ridiculous criteria for inclusion. Even if AMRN only captures 25% of that conservative population of 12M that's $5B in revenue, throw in patients with some other risk factors who don't meet the exact label criteria who will get it off label and you can easily get to double digit billions in sales. I know AMRN has mentioned patient population as high as 40M, but that has to include patients with only elevated BP, or are diabetics w/o established CVD yet.