Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Tal10]

But could it be that short interest is growing due to genuine fears of competition directly attributable to patent protection? And what are these fears? Wall Street is not stupid, but on the other hand they seldom play the long game as we do, so it is difficult to analyze motive. I just don't like to presume that since Teva settled, all others will follow suit. Nor do I like to presume that the FDA will make the right decision concerning synthetic supplements. I personally anticipate early approval by the FDA, and I do anticipate an expanded label beyond trig reduction. Wall Street obviously will make no such presumptions. And Wall Street will always price in risk that the FDA makes an unexpected decision. In my opinion, if we see trigs on the label, say 135 or above, with little Wall Street concern for patent issues we would immediately see the stock price trading above $29 (representing a market cap of over $12B, or peak sales of approximately $2.5B). If Vascepa receives a wider than expected label, AMRN should trade north of $40 upon approval (representing a market cap of approximately $16B, or peak sales of approximately $3.5B). If we don't see these prices, I do believe Wall Street is still pricing in strong inherent risks with the patents.

Of course, this would be just the beginning, as I project peak sales to EASILY surpass $15B assuming all goes as planned.