Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[KCSVEN]

Remember there are approx. 35 million shares from both recent raises all around $18, that creates a nice support but also a huge amount of shares looking to exit at some profit level so it also caps the upside price a bit and also seems to indicate around $18 is fairly valued as of today.

-IF they can de-risk with label expansion AND get generic suits off table AND EVAPORATE study is positive then peak sales estimates will rise to the 5-10 billion recently mentioned by one analyst, remember most have 1-3 billion peak estimate of sales, assuming next years option grants and all shares get converted that possibly could in the future we would be nearing 425 million fully diluted shares and thus we have an all-in market cap of 7.6 billion or so. With the street looking for Blockbuster drug selling 1-3 billion seems reasonably priced.

-The market for Vasepa is not half the population but a percentage of people on statins, what % of that # that decide to take Vascepa will determine peak sales estimates, potential growth beyond that down the line would not effect price in the near term.

-It is a 1 drug company, patents and generic potential is a big overhang regardless of odds of it being a real issue. Amarin will settle when the companies except a reasonable payout and accept the same date as Teva, since court date is January nobody is in a hurry to settle until court date is close, just the nature of court cases in general.