I agree the value of the FDA approval may be baked in, but I think much of a jump in price in the following days and months could come from the fact that with the FDA approval, the possibility of a buyout increases significantly. If a buyout happens, it is most likely to happen in the first 18 months. If rumors were to start up again, especially any based in actual facts, on top of actual sales increases, the price could go up pretty quickly.
I believe the one thing making a deal difficult to do up until now has been that no one really knows Amarin's worth yet. With approval of a specific expanded label, the potential market and revenues can be forecasted. And as the sales number begin to roll in, the valuations will become more clear.
Then the other drug companies can put a value on Amarin as can Amarin for itself and its drug.
So then negotiations can begin in earnest for a deal or buyout.
At this point, there will still be a good amount of life left in the primary patent. As time goes on, the value of the patent will go down. All the more reason to negotiate early on.
Amarin has some additional incentive to sell then. It will have to decide if it is really better to try to go it alone. Will it have the capital to do so effectively? Will revenues and profits come in fast enough? Can it exploit the drug to its full potential. Or would it feel okay with stepping aside to allow more robust marketing and selling and research and development by a bigger company? Would JT and company feel like they have done enough for the drug and and be willing to let go?
The biggest issue is, can a price be agreed upon? If a bidding war were to break out, between suitors, who knows what price Amarin could sell for. I'm not saying the price will jump in the following days, but I wouldn't be surprised.
