It is an easy strong rating, particularly after this small fund raise, and at this extremely low price.
I am not just saying it, I did buy more shares after the fund raise.
The reason is that the downside is 23 cents, but the upside is 500 cents and above, and the odds of the materialized upside is above 90 percent in my humble opinion, based on what we have know so far from blinded paper and subsequent presentation.
Obviously we have a long and fat tail. About one thirds of all the patients in the trial, i.e., about 100 who have survived 36 months have lived progression free -- tell me why FDA should not approve it.
Linda deserves credit for stretching the trial length to unprecedentedly long today, which is unprecedented in the history of ontological clinical trials. The results will be unprecedented and extremely rich in real data.
In my conversation with the company some months ago, I knew the company would have to raise fund in Summer, and I asked the company to do a raise as minimally as possible. Glad they followed through with a small raise, unlike a normal small biotech company which would have raise a significant amount of money just before a binary event. That's the game of this industry but it usually means nothing in terms of the eventual fate of any underlying trials.
To be honest, if Linda had raised a significant amount of money now just like any other normal company would do, that would discourage me. The fact that it is a small raise and the fund is not used to start a new trial, instills confidence in her part.
Yes Linda could have done more in bringing DCVax-L into market as early as possible. For example, if I were her, I would have submitted BLA at least one year ago with the blend milestone survival data for accelerated approval, while in waiting doing what the company have been doing since, including getting a representative SAP done, followed by unblinding the trial, and then submitting additional data for full approval.
In doing so, we would have never seen a share price below $1. Anyhow it's useless now to say what should have been done, so let's look forward for SAP submission and topline data release, which believe or not is coming.
I believe SAP has been submitted, And July surprise is still intact.
At least, we have a new floor price around $0.23, which will not sit there for long.
My prediction is shorts will bring the price up slowly in general, even though I prefer they continue piling up naked short shares. My other prediction is that Ex, AVII, Jerry, IClight and the like will take a long position despite its contrary to what they have been saying in this message board, let alone the swing traders like Scotty and JD. And there are tons of momentum chasers as well.
Humans are a bunch of complex organic masses.
