Looking at that TMC vrs GDP chart (reportedly Buffett's favorite metric for determining overall market valuations), the next recession should bring it back down from 140 toward the mean of 80. A recession is overdue and could come next year, even with the Fed now in dovish mode and trying engineer a soft landing. But that chart speaks volumes, and the fact that Buffett uses it also speaks volumes.
John Bogle said that his personal 'most bearish' asset allocation was 50/50 stocks to bonds (he would normally be 70% or 80% in stocks). Adjusting the asset allocation is about as close as Bogle would ever come to market timing, and because stocks have a much higher return over the long haul, avoiding stocks completely is a very bad idea. As we know, Bogle was strongly against market timing and trying to pick individual stocks.
