TO ALL: this is our last message on investorshub, as we have decided not to renew our IRP membership here. We are content to have created a backlog of posts that may be examined in the future.
Good luck to all, and we hope you seek the advice of a registered investment advisor on your exposure to risk in AMRN, and on hedging strategies.
Sounds like you "get it"...It's going to take a whole lot more than a couple of patent breakdowns [to significantly impact Vascepa sales] --jesselivermore
Amarin insiders have never once said they can "control the supply," and any inferences that they can thwart generic producers are greatly exaggerated.
Consider the ability of GSK to "thwart generic cos" from producing and selling generic Lovaza. They couldn't, at all. Sales dropped 75% in under a year. You think tiny AMRN can? It is absolutely not that complex to produce high-purity ethyl ester EPA (high-purity rTG EPA is trickier, but DS industry handles it just fine). It's a tech that has been around since the 70s, refined and streamlined in the 80s, and commercially launched in 1990 with Epadel--almost 30 years ago.
Let's be realistic here. DRL and Hikma will have absolutely no problem undercutting and taking >95% of Amarin's sales, and >70% in the first year, even if that just comes down to the automatic script switch that occurs at every pharmacy (it is actually law that they do so). Even if the script is for "Vascepa," the pharmacy fills it with generic Vascepa. If the patient protests, too bad.
That is the reality facing every company that seeks to stifle generic competition. There are antitrust laws in place to protect against it. The system is set up to support lower cost drugs. As it should be.
Not to mention, the court's ruling is coming soon--late Jan/early Feb. Amarin won't have any time to ramp up enough to even draw out the ultimate ruin of their business model.