Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[MedResCollab]

First of all you did not provide any evidence … just your view / interpretation of available info.

The counter-arguments will be the real evidences as:
- no AdCom
- FDA approval
- settlement with ANDAs or the favorable court decision

If all these in the bags: will you think you were wrong or it will means everybody were wrong and ignored the "evidences" provided by you? ... -HDGabor

You assert we presented no evidence that the REDUCE-IT results may have been confounded by the inhibition of cardiac medications in the placebo group?

ev·i·dence
/'ev?d?ns/
noun
noun: evidence
1. the available body of facts or information indicating whether a belief or proposition is true or valid.

Our 82-page CP if filled with information indicating cardiac medications were attenuated in the mineral oil placebo group in REDUCE-IT. What do you mean, "no evidence?"

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D=FDA-2019-P-3156-0001

Currently we are in a phase of probability known as "handicapping." Given the totality of information available, what are the odds of:

-sNDA approval
-no AC meeting
-no clinical hold on EVAPORATE
-no extension of PDUFA date
-settlement of patent litigation cases
-win in patent litigations late Jan/early Feb

Our evidence suggests that the odds of the above are much less favorable to AMRN than the market believes, giving AMRN an inflated (in our view) $7B+ market cap.

Whether we are wrong ultimately is a difficult matter to resolve. That may seem like scapegoating, but it is not. Consider that we are all predicting the likelihood of an event(s). Any prediction has odds. All outcomes are absolute, regardless of the previous odds. If you were given 3:1 return on a proposition that had a 50% chance of occurring, you have a positive ROI if you take it. The outcome does not determine whether your "call" was right or wrong.

Of course, anyone can say after the fact, "I should have bet everything on it!" or, "I should never have bet even $1!" But that is irrelevant to the correctness of the call.

Regards,
-MRC