S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP) Monthly Summary Analysis »» Turning Back UP
By: Marty Armstrong | July 6, 2019

WE SEE THE ANALYTICAL SITUATION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jul. 5, 2019: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 816179 and is trading up about 23% for the year from last year's closing of 663528. This price action here in July is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 817197 intraday and is still trading above that high of 808888.


Up to now, the market remains unchanged within support still above our system indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish.

During this year, we have exceeded last year's high thereby making a new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a reasonable period of 10 years. This market on the yearly level has been making new highs since the last low established 9 years ago which has been a series of successive advances. The last 4 highs have been progressively making higher highs implying we have had a bullish market in motion for the past 35 years. The last high was made during 2018. The magnitude of this advance suggest we are dealing with a Plateau Move rather than a mere Phase Transition. We have not elected any Bullish Reversals thus far.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 857235 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 565602 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

Our timing models warn that a turning point is due come August in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so we should remain focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during June. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a low at 729222 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 808888 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.

Critical support still underlies this market at 690106 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 6 months. The previous low of 619017 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 744823 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during April on the Monthly level at 817608 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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