Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

[DiscoverGold]

NY Silver COMEX Futures Monthly Summary Analysis »» Turning Back UP
By: Marty Armstrong | June 22, 2019

ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Jun. 21, 2019: The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 152900 is immediately trading down about 1.60% for the year from last year's closing of 155400. This price action here in June is suggesting that this has been a bear market trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 155550 intraday and is still trading above that high of 149950.


As of now, the market remains unchanged within support still above our system indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 7 years. The correction since that high has been a 27% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 341765 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 12% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating and moving higher since the low established during 2015. However, we did elect 1 Bearish Reversal from the high formed on during 2016 which provided the decline into during 2018. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Bullish Reversals from the last low established during 2018.



Our timing models warn that a turning point is due come July in NY Silver COMEX Futures so we should remain focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during January. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 142650 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 156650 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 162000 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during January. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 173600 back during April 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 143140 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The previous high made during January on the Monthly level at 162000 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. The previous low of 138600 made during November 2018 on the Monthly level. However, we still remain above key support 142400 on a closing basis.

• DiscoverGold

Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries