Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[MedResCollab]

fordyoz,

The huge (and very costly) push by GSK was effective and well-timed. They had GISSI-P data, and with it indication for post-MI in the EU, additional data that showed Lovaza was more effective than statins for heart disease, and good penetration in major EU member states that began with Pronova (and much longer ramp than Vascepa will in best case have)—and the AHA even chimed in with a rec for secondary prevention patients. They also in effect had the ANCHOR population in their prescribing information, and it was being promoted by the >2,000 reps.

In our view that is a better starting place than the entire statin treated population. The risk of overestimations of penetration and patient population size is too high from a focus on the latter. Penetration is always the most difficult metric to predict. Best to base a model off something actually done before.