Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[indialong]

I think he's just being very, very conservative. There is a similar analysis on that same page for Neurotrope.

So he's basically saying, even with only 10% market penetration, and even using it only in mild AD, and assuming a protracted adoption by the market, it's still a $1.5B/year drug. But if it works, the market will adopt way faster than that, with way more than 10% penetration into the mild AD market, with there being no competitor molecules. And it'll be prescribed for those with more than mild AD. And that doesn't take into account PDD and other forms of dementia which will also generate scripts.