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Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJIA) Monthly Summary Analysis »» Possible Temp Low
By: Marty Armstrong | June 15, 2019

CURRENTLY, OUR ANALYTICAL POSITION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jun. 14, 2019: Dow Jones Industrials closed today at 2608961 and is trading up about 11% for the year from last year's closing of 2332746. Currently, this market has been declining for 2 months. This price action here in June is warning that we may have at least a temporary high in place beginning perhaps a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level if we see lower prices next month or close lower. Otherwise, there remains the potential for a one-month Knee-Jerk reaction low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking under the previous month's low dropping to 2468057 intraday yet it remains trading back above that previous low of 2481504 implying near-term strength.


Up to this moment in time, the market remains neutral on the momentum indicator yet bullish on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish.

The historical major high took place here in 2018 and we have up to now this year remained trading within last year's range in a consolidating pattern. So far we have seen a trading range of 2669596 for a high and 2263841 for the low.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 2818645 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 1881635 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

A possible change in trend appears due come October in Dow Jones Industrials so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during May. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, thus far, this market has already broken that previous low established at 2480951. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bearish overall. Last month produced a low at 2480951 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 2480951 closing yesterday at 2608961. We now need to close below 2480951 on a monthly basis to imply a continued decline is possible.

Critical support still underlies this market at 2426873 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The previous high made during April on the Monthly level at 2669596 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. The previous low of 2171253 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level. However, we still remain above key support 2263841 on a closing basis.

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