Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[SonamKapoor]

Dancing/Tasty - hi, was on the road a lot the last 3 months. So, was scanning these past 2 weeks for whether PR would be granted and yay, it was!

Peru's anchovy quota they are fishing on now was announced at 2.1 mil mt back in April (biomass estimated at 7 mil mt). About a mil mt off from the same period last year. However yields have been better even with a high juvenile presence. They are 50+% of the way through and should be done around June 22nd if current catch rates hold up which is pretty good considering many Peruvian ports were closed on/off due to rough seas in May. Overall, global crude marine oil volume will be down from last year (Northern Europe production has also been down as expected due to quota reductions + poor yields). Original forecast was for a world reduction of around 100,000 mt from last year's total, but due to better yields on some fisheries it will likely be much less down than that. Maybe only 60,000 mt down from LY?

I'd guess roughly as follows:

- days/weeks, fishing off coast of Chile or Peru for anchovy
- 1-2 months, anchovy crude oil from shore plant in Peru/Chile (heat raw mat to 95degC & screw press/decanter to separate oil from solids and water)
- 2-3 weeks, from Lima/Callao or Santiago to Norway via Panama Canal on an ED&F bulk ocean freighter
- 1-2 months, 1st rectification step (washing + to mid-concentration step)
- 1-3 days, by ferry/feeder vessel if to mainland EU for 2nd final refining stage to API
- 1-2 months, 2nd refining stage to API via HPGC, SMBGC or SFE, etc etc.
- 3-4 weeks, shipping containers of drums or flexis to encapsulator
- 3-12 weeks, encapsulator could be less if JIT delivery is perfect
- 1-2 weeks, shipment out to wherever, USA DCs

Switching gears,

Long ago history refresher on GSK/Pronova/Reliant. GSK promised a big ramp up in API fish oil demand and Denmark built a plant...GSK cancelled their agreement to buy API from the plant in Kalundborg and a lot of people were laid off.

That memory sticks partly because of the manner in which GSK made their demands with a lot of BP swagger. I've attached articles (use Danish to English translation), but interesting 2 days ago BASF decided NOT to resume production at this Kalundborg plant which has been mothballed since 2014.

new article this week on Pronova factory
https://sn.dk/Kalundborg/Helt-slut-med-Pronova-fabrik/artikel/844012

https://www.berlingske.dk/business/rig-nordmand-gaar-i-land-i-kalundborg
https://sn.dk/Kalundborg/Fabrik-skal-genopstaa/artikel/687303
https://www.tv2east.dk/artikler/100-nye-arbejdspladser-til-kalundborg

2014 article on plant closure
https://sn.dk/Kalundborg/Pronova-lukker-fabrik/artikel/437477