Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Nearest Futures Monthly Summary Analysis »» Possible Temp Low
By: Marty Armstrong | May 11, 2019

THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. May 10, 2019: NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 128740 and is trading up about 0.47% for the year from last year's closing of 128130. Currently, this market has been declining for 3 months. This price action here in May is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking under the previous month's low dropping to 126730 intraday yet it remains trading back above that previous low of 128570 implying near-term strength.


Factually, the market remains bullish on the short-term levels of our indicators while the long-term trend is bullish.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 7 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 23% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 7 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 104540. Since last year did exceed the previous high

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 157594 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 131000 which the market is now trading beneath illustrating technical weakness.

A possible change in trend appears due come June in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during April. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, thus far, this market has already broken that previous low established at 126790. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bearish overall. Last month produced a low at 126790 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 126790 closing yesterday at 128740. We now need to close below 126790 on a monthly basis to imply a continued decline is possible.

Critical support still underlies this market at 123820 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time. For now on a broader perspective, this market in an uptrend posture looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 8 months. The previous low of 116270 made during August 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 128080 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during February on the Monthly level at 134980 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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