Tradeher,
Interesting that you should mention that correlation to posts and probability.
Posts never change the probability for my purposes, unless news of new trial or failed trial etc, but we do have correlation between posters and share price to some degree.
For instance, I am a prime example. Each time I post, the stock has a down day. (I’ll be adjourning for rest of week, and it appears safe to post after hours?)
I don’t post every day, so I can see the connection, though I hope it’s not causal!
Harder to get strong correlations between several great posters who post each day - can go up, down, or sideways.)*
However, very odd, there is one specific poster, who rarely posts, and I won’t give out names, don’t wish to skew my data, but, darn if the price doesn’t go up each time (even though infrequent). Not causal either I am sure.
The bashers have zero effect - up/down/sideways. Same with the very loyal longs who defend.
It was just a parameter I thought would be fun to track.
That’s all for now. Will let the word out if we change our odds, just for fun.
And, in case you’re wondering, yes, our odds do go down also - this is not extremely volatile but it does change. Funny example: for the sake of curiosity, I plugged in the data that Biogen folded its BAN2041(?) trial and Biogen’s odds increased from 7% to 12%! I think the program assumed that the company would try to license or acquire some other small entity (not us), but another one as has been their pattern.
Also, I separate the companies by indications to ignore “noise” from other products and trials which they may be running. That’s FYI. We are going head to head in AD only, or PDD only...so on.
Anything else would be a non-comparison.
Good day to ya!
Back under my rock to keep that price headed up:)
Bio
