Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures Monthly Summary Analysis »» Further Decline Likely
By: Marty Armstrong | May 4, 2019

THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. May 3, 2019: The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 149780 is immediately trading down about 3.61% for the year from last year's closing of 155400. Factually, this market has been declining for 4 months. This price action here in May is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking under the previous month's low dropping to 145700 intraday yet it is trading at least below last month's close of 149840.


Up to this moment in time, the market remains neutral on the short-term levels of both momentum and trend on our indicators while the long-term trend is bullish.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 7 years. The correction since that high has been a 27% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 341765 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 9.97% which has been a moderate rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating and moving higher since the low established during 2015. However, we did elect 1 Bearish Reversal from the high formed on during 2016 which provided the decline into during 2018. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Bullish Reversals from the last low established during 2018.



A possible change in trend appears due come July in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during January. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 147000 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 147000 closing yesterday at 149780. We now need to close below 147000 on a monthly basis to imply a continued decline is possible.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 162000 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during January. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 173600 back during April 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 143140 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The previous high made during January on the Monthly level at 162000 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. The previous low of 138600 made during November 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 149500 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain above key support 142400 on a closing basis.

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