The Russell 2000 small caps (RUT) have lagged the other indices, but now it looks ready to finally get thru near term resistance (1600) and move to the upside.
While it will need to get to 1740 to reach the Oct highs, having the small caps moving higher by itself is reassuring for the rest of the market. TA experts have warned that if the small caps started falling in earnest while the large cap indexes reach new highs, that would be a harbinger of trouble ahead.
Resolving the China trade problems should be a big positive all around, but the markets will still need to correct the current overbought situation at some point since it won't be sustainable once the S+P gets to 3000-3100 or more. There will have to be a correction since the chart will be too overextended.
Summarizing, I'm thinking the S+P reaches 3000-3100 prior to the correction. Resolution of the China trade problem could raise that near term target higher than 3100, but then the need for a correction will be even more acute from a TA/chart perspective.
