If it is 2021 what period are they reporting 6 billion? I doubt if that's for FY 2020 that they can get enough inventory produced for half that, maybe by end of 2021 they can do that for 2022. They've been working hard the last year plus just to get vendors to 1 billion capability, if they need to increase that much AMRN will likely need to put some money up for that expansion which will cost money.
They probably have 500 million shares then, so about $2 billion profit is $4 per share profit with a fast growth rate a P/E of 20 can give you about $80 per share. But likely 2023 before that would happen with all the logistics involved, so 6 years before generics at that point could keep P/E lower than you would want. P/E ratio will come down to what they plan to do with the high cash flow. They could buy back shares, do a dividend, invest in acquisitions for a pipeline etc..
Still a 3-4 bagger in 3-4 years but assume no possible risks happen and they can reach 6 billion in earnings in a few years.
I agree in theory the upside is much bigger with GIA, though with CVR's you can moderate a lot of that and actually make more money in a BO with CVR's assuming a BO can get sales ramped faster, add additional indications faster with more money for other trials etc..
The downside is much bigger in GIA.
I think we are all here as investors because we think this is a blockbuster drug, I think different people have different views on how a 1 drug company, with no history of growing sales on a BB drug will succeed and how fast.
I think BO is no risk and possible high reward with CVR's and even without it is high return quickly with no risk.
GIA involves a degree of downside risk and a large upside, if they GIA the long haul I expect the stock to be high enough that if management fails for whatever reason it will become evident early enough to still get a good profit. SO GIA or BO from these levels things look good, if it could base above $30 a share that would definitely make everyone more comfortable to wait out the GIA pitfalls.
