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NY Gold Nearest Futures Monthly Summary Analysis »» Reaction Low
By: Marty Armstrong | April 20, 2019

ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Thu. Apr. 18, 2019: The NY Gold Nearest Futures closing today at 127600 is immediately trading down about 0.41% for the year from last year's closing of 128130. The historical perspective in the NY Gold Nearest Futures included a rally from 2016 moving into a major high for 2018, the market has pulled back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the closed of 2016.


This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Historically, this market has been declining for 2 years going into 2019 reflecting that this has been only still a bearish reactionary trend.

Currently, the market remains quite bearish below all our system support indicators with resistance starting at 128530. The broader cyclical system indicators are also in a bearish position while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bearish.

This market on the monthly level has been consolidating and moving higher since the low established August. However, we have not elected any Bearish Reversals from high made onFebruary. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Bullish Reversals from the last low established March.

A possible change in trend appears due come July in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during March. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, thus far, this market has already broken that previous low established at 128080. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bearish overall. Last month produced a low at 128080 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 128080 closing yesterday at 127600. We now need to close below 127530 on a monthly basis to imply a continued decline is possible.

Critical support still underlies this market at 123820 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time. Looking at a broader time horizon, this market is in an uptrend position on all our monthly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 7 months. The previous low of 116270 made during August 2018 on the Monthly level. The previous high made during February on the Monthly level at 134980 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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