S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP) Monthly Summary Analysis »» New Pattern Forming
By: Marty Armstrong | April 20, 2019

OUR ANALYTICAL VIEWPOINT AS OF THE CLOSE OF Thu. Apr. 18, 2019: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 799806 and is trading up about 20% for the year from last year's closing of 663528. The historical perspective in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash included a rally from 2016 moving into a major high for 2018, the market has pulled back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the closed of 2013 which signaled the rally would continue into 2018. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then.


This market is still what we classify as a Bull Market given it remains above all indicators on the Yearly indicating models. However, from the Weekly to quarterly timing levels, the market remains positive but showing signs of overhead resistance. Currently, this market has been rising for 9 years going into 2019 suggesting that this has been a bull market trend which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.

As of now, the market remains unchanged within support still above our system indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish.

This market on the monthly level has been making a reaction low retesting the previous low of 619017 established back December. The Channel Technical Support rests at 588228 for the next session. A closing below that will signal a break to the downside once again. Currently, we see projected extreme support below the market residing at 424704. The Downtrend Line resistance stands above the market at 892694 with our immediate projected resistance standing at 840342.

A possible change in trend appears due come May in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during December 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 785011 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 785011 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 821010 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 813330 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during August 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 608195 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 3 months. The previous low of 619017 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 722514 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during August 2018 on the Monthly level at 813330 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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