NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Lykiri]

I've fallen at the first hurdle. Where does the 162 come from?
Oh yes. It must be their cited number of confirmed unmeth.
Checked.

So yes, 23 out 162 made 36 months (as of SNO).

If we breakdown on the actual ratio split of 70:30, the estimate for total treatment unmeth would be 113 at outset.
If you assume that all of these were treatment that would be
23/113 or 20.3%. Just over a percent down on your 21.5%.

If DCVax had no effect, then 70% of the 23 would be 16 treatment and 7 control. Clearly, I agree that more than 70% of the 23 will have been treatment. In fact I'd say nearly all.
But, there usually is an outlier or two who bucks the odds. So I'll say just one of the 23 started out as control.

And 22 started out as treatment. And that comes out at 19.5%.

So my best estimate of OS36 for treatment unmeth is 19.5%
And the corresponding figure for control unmeth would be 1 out of 23 or about 4.3%. But it's all guesswork, and there could be 2 or 3 control unmeth making 36 months, or it indeed could be none.

Longfellow95,

It is not 1 out of 23 or about 4.3% but 1 out of 49 (162 unmethylated - 113 unmethylated treatment = 49 unmethylated placebo) or about 2% IMO