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Friday, April 12, 2019 12:31:07 PM
That's about it.
The craze for Pharma acquisitions in the biotech cancer space are the immunotherapy companies. As part of that area, those companies into on target gene therapy tools, so as to make complex CAR-Ts, TILs, and other approaches. In 2nd place are the targeted pathway drugs. In all cases the acquisition target has drugs in Phase 2 with top line results. A minority might already have a drug approved, and in the market, with others in CTs. Also trending are those small caps which have licensed their first drug to large Pharma, where large Pharma pushes it through to the China market. Providing revenue for the small cap to pursue other drugs it owns. The setup being the large Pharma will eventually eat the small cap.
In ALL cases a potential buyer, or partner is looking for a portfolio of products with a potential market of $Bs. And they don't buy blind. They want those Phase 2 top line results. So what does Kenny or whoever on the BODs, along with a Morell or whoever have to offer a large Pharma?
Currently they have 8 yrs of PR pumps to offer. Or best case they can show a large Pharma an IND has gone in to conduct a Phase 1-2a CT. That's it. There is no sanctioned FDA CT data that shows CIAB works. None, nunca, nyet! Then there is the potential market. Where as previously posted even if every SH takes their vitamins every morning, and by some miracle the Kenny wonder treatment shows any effect in a 2nd line setting, the market potential is less than $100M. Most of the $2-4B PC treatment expense is absorbed by front line drugs, diagnostics, and supportive care. Very few patients falling down to 2nd line treatment survive for more than a few months. Less revenue.
My Glo-Orb is predicting that in the next 5 yrs all current 2nd line treatments will be gone. There will be CAR-T, and other therapies which offer a potential cure. Great news for PC patients, bad news for the traditional 2nd line chemo treatments. So how is a Morell or other going to persuade a large pharma to shepard the Kenny wonder treatment through 3+ yrs of CTs, costing upwards of $200M. So as to get marketing approval for a 2nd line treatment, as 2nd line treatments fade into history? And of course PMCB SHs want at least $1/shr from a mythical acquisition. What Pharma is going to pay ~$1.5B for a DOA PC treatment? Or have barely enough marketing time to recoup CT expenses? Currently based on no data? Without knowing if it works?
The only thing the current buyout speculation does, is to give Kenny a ... PASS. An excuse for silence. After all, the 15-Jan timeline runs out next week.
The Jewel of the Mind is Colored with the Hue of what it Imagines
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