While watching the paint dry trying to summarize where street is at with Amarin-If you have data to fill in I don't have please do:
Analyst summary Price Targets:
H.C Wainwright A. Fein: $51 unchanged after 2019 sales forecast released
Jeffries Mike Lee: $30, unchanged
Citi Joel Beatty: $20, down from $28
Suntrust John Boris: $15 Down from $30
Stifel Nicolaus Derek Archila: $27 Coverage initiated March 22 with Buy
Cantor Fitzgerald Louise Chen: $35 Unchanged
Peak Sales Estimates:
Citi Joel Beatty: $2.5 billion down from $3.0 billion
Stifel Nicolaus Derek Archila: $2.5 Billion initiated March 22
-I know Andrew Fein has peak sales estimates because one of his risks to stock price is not reaching them but cannot find a number nor numbers from other analysts
Revenue Estimates:
4 analysts from yahoo Finance:
2019 High: $386 Million
2019 Low: $350 Million
2019 AvG: $365
2020 High: $663
2020 low: $515
2020 Avg: $567
All analyst project losses for 2019 and 2020 profit at an average of .24 cents before Stifel Nicolaus came out at .34 per share profit for 2020
So rather than stock manipulation it might just be the street has way less optimism on peak sales than those on this board and heavily invested in Amarin. If you start analyzing the stock price on the above #'s does the price seem wildly undervalued?
This could, and I think so since I'm invested, be a situation where those investing the proper time into AMRN can see where the street is off, only HC Wainwright seems to have upside potential like we discuss here. If I'm right this is exactly the type of stock you dream of finding. Nice to be smarter than the rest HA.
So it seems Amarin will need to prove sales can ramp up faster than street thinks, when it does price will accordingly rise with it. As analyst raise revenue targets and prices stock will continue to run as they continue to beat estimates.
I don't think Amarin will raise 2019 sales estimates UNTIL FDA notifies them of expedited review or not, its possible they do it at 1Q CC if no news on that by then, but then they'll be pressured to do it again a few weeks later. Seems logical to wait but if sales are $90 million IN Q1 they'd have to say they will beat $350 but if they are $80 they will probably defer guidance until FDA 74 Day Letter IMO. We'll see. If they are smart they will keep guidance low and then beat, that's key to helping stock price rise.
